We know how a war begins but we never know how it will end. Wars have their own logic that often eludes those who initiate them. Putin thought he could conquer his democratic neighbor relatively easily but Russian forces are slowly but surely getting bogged down in Ukraine.
Often perceived as a shrewd leader, Putin nonetheless made several strategic mistakes:
First, he overestimated the capacity of his own troops. For more than 20 years, the Russian army has been re-equipping. Russian forces started from afar after the fall of the Soviet Union. They failed to subdue the Chechen separatists during the first war in the region (1994-1996). At the turn of the century, with Putin coming to power, they launched another offensive in Chechnya, but at what cost? Not a building was spared in the capital, Grozny, so much so that the United Nations called it the most destroyed city on earth.
One would think that with their new tanks and new planes, the Russians would also be more competent, but that hardly seems to be the case. They still use the same old strategy, that of the Soviets, which advocates mass, massive use of artillery, missiles and aerial bombardment on enemy positions and civilians alike. The Russian military is unfit for – and uninterested in – surgical strikes that would limit collateral damage. Despite all their firepower, the Russians are struggling to subdue the opposition.
Which brings me to Putin’s second mistake, that of grossly underestimating the resilience of the Ukrainian people. I know it’s cliché, but we’re really talking about David against Goliath with such an imbalance in the forces involved. The Ukrainians are waging a war of survival against Russian soldiers, some of who seem to wonder what they are doing there. Volodymyr Zelensky, the comedian-president turned president-lion, perfectly symbolizes the courage and determination of Ukrainians to protect their democratic way of life, which was hard won in the 30 years since the fall of the USSR.
The Ukrainians certainly impress, but unfortunately that does not mean they will triumph over the invader. Putin has way more resources and he seems to have no qualms about using them to overthrow Zelensky and install a puppet government in his place. Every morning I dread hearing that the president has been captured or killed. His personal courage is more than commendable, but one day he will have to accept the proposals for evacuation, otherwise he risks becoming a martyr for Ukraine – him and his beautiful family.
Putin’s third mistake was to underestimate the resolve of the West. NATO is not going to establish a no-fly zone (I will come back to this later), but the response to the invasion shows that the West does not intend to sit idly by either. The important economic sanctions are hurting the oligarchs and the ruble is in freefall. What’s particular in this conflict is that the punitive measures come not only from the states but also from the companies which suspend their transactions with Russia on their own initiatives.
The large supply of arms to Ukraine is also having effect on the war. The message to Putin is clear: Europe/NATO will not directly attack the invader, but it will not hesitate to arm the Ukrainians.
Which brings me to the proposal to establish a no-fly zone. A no-fly zone equates to a declaration of war, because to establish and maintain the “bubble” over Ukrainian territory it will be necessary to attack Russia’s planes and anti-aircraft defenses. The no-fly zone is a false good idea that would extend the conflict to the rest of Europe. The sad reality is that the West must do everything in its power to prevent the war from spilling out of the confines of Ukraine. This is what realpolitik dictates.
To avoid an extension of the conflict, the West must walk a tightrope. Putin, in his logic of a bully, will not hesitate to hit nuclear power plants, hospitals and sanctuaries. He knows the rest of the world is balks at the idea of entering the war, hence why he did not hesitate to conduct strikes close to NATO nations. Yet, despite the provocations, the West should show restrain for the simple reason that Russia has the atomic bomb.
I don’t want to sound overly alarmist, but Putin has proven time and time again that, when provoked, his reflex is to double down. He only understands strength so we can’t expect him to simply withdraw his troops without a possibility of saving face. Not to mention that the dictator is almost 70 years old and has no real family, so if he decides that even a tactical nuclear strike can benefit him, I’m afraid there’s nothing to prevent him from doing so.
As I wrote at the outset, no one knows how this war will end. Unfortunately, even so-called limited wars tend, when they drag on, to evolve into total wars.
I personally believe that the solution to the conflict on Ukrainian soil lies in Moscow. A popular uprising against Putin is inconceivable for the short to mid-term; the Russian masses simply cannot overthrow the Kremlin. They are victims of disinformation and cannot organize under the influence of a quasi-totalitarian government. However, the oligarchs who allow Putin to remain in power can have a real influence on the outcome of the conflict. And the pressure on the oligarchs goes through their wallets because they understand one thing only and that is money. And money, as we know, is the sinews of war.
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