The first casualty of war is always the truth. For months before the invasion, Putin lied about his intent, and he will keep on lying, as demonstrated by the so-called détente of the last 48 hours. While Russian negotiators claimed they would scale back their offensive, their forces launched new attacks and there were no mass removal of troops.
All the while, Russia keeps adding fuel to the fire by striking targets close to the Polish border. Putin wants to taunt the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and demonstrate that its 30 member states cannot agree on what constitutes a threat to the Alliance.
Article 5 of the NATO Treaty is the cornerstone of the Alliance, yet, it was invoked only once since the creation of NATO, on 12 September 2001 by the United States. Poland could very well be the second country to invoke the article.
Relations have always been turbulent between Russia and Poland, going back to the Middle Ages. In recent History, the Soviets joined Nazi Germany to invade Poland in September 1939. After reaching central Poland, the German and Soviet armies practically shook hands, allowing the Germans to turn West.
If Russia keeps provoking Poland, Warsaw could say that Moscow crossed a line and ask the NATO partners to come to their aid.
It is difficult to predict the consequences of such an action. By invoking Article 5, NATO is definitely at war against Russia, but a war with various objectives, inevitably, since NATO is a political alliance before being a military alliance. The level of commitment of the 30 nations would vary drastically.
If article 5 was invoked, no other country than the United States could lead a mission in Ukraine. This would effectively mean that, some 31 years after the end of the Cold War, during which the USSR and the United States always waged war by proxy, Russians and Americans forces would face each other directly on the battlefield.
Still, it is not just Poland that could invoke Article 5. The Baltic countries – Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia – are also on high alert since the beginning of the conflict. After Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in 1999, they were among the first to join NATO, to mark a clear break with the former USSR. Putin would like to see the Baltic countries return to the bosom of Moscow. He could be tempted to strike at them as well.
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After 6 weeks of intense fighting, and despite the Russians seriously underperforming, the future is very uncertain and there is nothing to say that NATO nations could not be drawn into the conflict.
One reason for this is that it is difficult to determine what could constitute a red line, the one action that would generate serious retaliations, from either Moscow or the West.
Establishing a clear red line serves as a warning to the opposite party that some specific actions will not be tolerated. However, simply establishing a clearly visible line in the sand is not enough to be effective: it is absolutely essential to be 100% committed to take the necessary measures when the adversary goes too far.
The concept of deterrence is based on a credible threat and a firm commitment to retaliate when the adversary crosses the line. Red lines must be enforced, at the risk of losing serious credibility, hence why heads of state typically balk at the idea of establishing them, at least publicly. Obama’s refusal to retaliate when Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons in Syria in 2012 is the clearest example of such a failure to enforce a public policy. To al-Assad, the message was clear: he could continue to act with impunity. The tyrants of this world also understood that the line could be pushed back.
In the present dispute, Biden has warned Putin that he will pay a “heavy price” if he uses chemical weapons. Presumably, this warning applies equally, if not more so, to biological, radiological or nuclear weapons. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the deliberate massacre of civilians with all sorts of conventional weapons does not constitute a casus belli for the West, and let’s make it clear why: that is simply because Russia possesses atomic weapons. This is another lesson that the tyrants of this world draw: the atomic weapon provides a formidable power of deterrence. It is the biggest bargaining chip, as the regimes in North Korea and Iran know very well.
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While the heavy fighting takes place mostly in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, we should keep a focus on Russia’s actions in Western Ukraine. The Russians could eventually try to cut access to the Polish border to prevent the entry of weapons, or simply to frustrate the Ukrainians by making it hard to leave the country. The region could become a powder keg in the coming weeks, as Polish or Western troops could eventually be struck. Will this constitute a red line for the Alliance? It all depends on the will of the 30 nations.
Putin did not clearly state what his red line would be either. He did say that economic sanctions and transfer of arms could constitute an act of war, but at what level do these actions become unacceptable? Also, Putin knows fully well that the sanctions and the arms transfers will continue as they have proven effective so far, and the West will do everything to avoiding engaging in direct fighting.
Putin will keep testing the resolve of the Alliance, just like the Soviets did for more than 40 years. Clearly, we are witnessing a return of the Cold War. Regardless of the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has become a pariah state, led by a war criminal, which the West will have to deal with in the coming years. It is a good time to open the History books and revisit the concepts of Cold War, Iron Curtain and nuclear deterrence. Our leaders are going to need the hard-learned lessons of the second half of the 20th century.
While Moscow and the West do not want the conflict to expand, wars have their own logic that eludes the parties involved. Putin is playing a dangerous game and could make mistakes that would lead to dire consequences for all of us.
In the military we are taught that no plan survives first contact. Or, as Mike Tyson famously stated, “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Putin just got punched in the face by the Ukrainians; it remains to be seen how he will undertake the next round.
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